Thursday, September 6, 2018

2018 NFL Wins Bet: One Man's Quest For Three



Two seasons, two championships in the books. Akin to my train commute passing cars on the 105, my picks have sped by the competition. Having said that, there’s a giant predictive gap between what’s happened in the past and what’s most likely to happen in the future. Specifically, the NFL is among the kings of volatility and with the introduction of another player, Zach, the odds have drastically changed.

For context, these championships refer to winning our annual NFL “wins bet”—a draft-style bet between four friends, whereby each person selects a real-life NFL team and receives their wins. The objective is to have the most total wins at the end of the season; each person bets $50, winner-take-all.

While I may have won the last two seasons, it wasn’t a linear path there. For one, a fortuitous and admittedly homer-driven trade last season—my Giants for Sean’s Chargers—ended up propelling me to a championship last year despite my honest thinking that the Giants were actually a better bet for more wins.

But what about this season? Following the finalization of our draft yesterday, who projects to win it all? Will Aaron grab his third consecutive NFL win? Let’s take a look, particularly leveraging the thinking of sportsbooks and projection systems.

VIVA LAS VEGAS

Pick
Owner
LV Avg
Sbook
Bovada
Sharp LV
1
Aaron
66.9
67.5
66.0
67.2
4
Zach
66.5
66.5
66.5
66.5
2
Eric
65.6
66.0
65.0
65.7
3
Sean
60.3
60.0
60.0
61.0

Vegas thinks it will be a tight race at the top, with Aaron, Zach and Eric duking it out—while they’re not as bullish on Sean’s suite of teams.

Maybe projection systems feel differently?

PROJECTIONS SMA-JECTIONS

Pick
Owner
Proj Avg
538
TeamRk
ESPN
NF
1
Aaron
67.1
70.0
66.4
67.0
65.1
2
Eric
65.0
65.2
63.9
65.0
65.8
4
Zach
64.7
65.5
63.7
67.0
62.6
3
Sean
59.5
55.5
61.9
58.0
62.5

This is where Aaron really shines—538 is particularly bullish—holding a formidable two-win lead over Eric and Zach, while Sean again lags behind.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Let’s put it all together, combing the thinking of Vegas sportsbooks with that of public projection models:

Pick
Owner
All Avg
LV Avg
Proj Avg
1
Aaron
67.0
66.9
67.1
4
Zach
65.6
66.5
64.7
2
Eric
65.3
65.6
65.0
3
Sean
59.9
60.3
59.5

With the first pick in the draft, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Aaron nets the highest average score across both sources, with the consensus having him as a 1.5-win favorite over both Zach and Eric to achieve the elusive three-peat. Sean’s set of contrarian picks will be interesting to watch all season, as his models were at odds with Vegas and other public projection systems.

For reference, I’ve included the full data set below. 

Best of luck this season, gents.

Pick
Owner
Team
All Avg
LV Avg
Proj Avg
Sbook
Bovada
Sharp LV
538
TeamRk
ESPN
NF
1
Aaron
New England Patriots
11.1
11.3
10.9
11.5
11.0
11.3
11.2
11.2
11.0
10.0
2
Eric
Philadelphia Eagles
10.2
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.0
10.3
11.0
9.8
10.0
10.0
3
Sean
Los Angeles Rams
9.4
10.0
8.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
8.2
9.5
9.0
8.8
4
Zach
Pittsburgh Steelers
10.1
10.5
9.8
10.5
10.5
10.4
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.4
5
Zach
Green Bay Packers
9.3
9.9
8.7
10.0
10.0
9.8
7.1
9.0
10.0
8.5
6
Sean
Los Angeles Chargers
9.4
9.5
9.2
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.5
9.0
9.4
7
Eric
Minnesota Vikings
9.8
10.1
9.6
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.0
9.5
8
Aaron
New Orleans Saints
9.4
9.6
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.2
9.5
9.0
9.4
9
Aaron
Atlanta Falcons
9.1
9.3
9.0
9.5
9.0
9.3
9.9
9.0
9.0
8.1
10
Eric
Jacksonville Jaguars
9.0
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.2
8.8
8.8
9.0
9.3
11
Sean
Houston Texans
8.2
8.6
7.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
6.3
8.2
8.0
8.5
12
Zach
Carolina Panthers
8.7
8.8
8.6
8.5
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
9.0
8.4
13
Zach
Kansas City Chiefs
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
9.5
7.9
9.0
7.7
14
Sean
Tennessee Titans
7.9
8.0
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
7.8
8.0
7.4
15
Eric
San Francisco 49ers
8.1
8.5
7.8
8.5
8.5
8.4
7.3
7.0
9.0
7.9
16
Aaron
Dallas Cowboys
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.8
8.2
9.0
7.7
17
Aaron
Baltimore Ravens
8.3
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.0
8.2
8.7
8.0
8.0
8.4
18
Eric
Oakland Raiders
7.8
8.0
7.6
8.0
8.0
8.1
7.3
7.8
8.0
7.3
19
Sean
New York Giants
6.8
7.1
6.4
7.0
7.0
7.3
5.8
7.0
6.0
6.9
20
Zach
Seattle Seahawks
8.0
7.8
8.2
7.5
8.0
7.8
8.9
7.8
8.0
8.2
21
Zach
Detroit Lions
7.7
7.6
7.8
7.5
7.5
7.7
8.2
7.1
8.0
7.7
22
Sean
New York Jets
6.3
5.9
6.7
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.9
6.2
6.0
7.7
23
Eric
Chicago Bears
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.8
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.6
24
Aaron
Denver Broncos
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.4
7.0
7.6
7.0
7.3
25
Aaron
Washington Redskins
7.1
7.0
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.7
26
Eric
Cincinnati Bengals
7.0
6.6
7.4
6.5
6.5
6.7
7.5
7.6
7.0
7.3
27
Sean
Cleveland Browns
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.7
3.8
6.5
6.0
6.4
28
Zach
Miami Dolphins
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.7
7.0
6.8
6.0
6.5
29
Zach
Indianapolis Colts
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
6.5
6.8
6.3
7.0
7.0
6.2
30
Sean
Arizona Cardinals
6.3
5.6
7.0
5.5
5.5
5.9
7.4
7.2
6.0
7.4
31
Eric
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.8
6.4
6.0
6.9
32
Aaron
Buffalo Bills
6.4
6.0
6.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
8.0
5.8
7.0
6.5


Aaron Sauceda Web Developer

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3 comments:

  1. I just want to pose one question: how are these drafts fun for Aaron?

    Let me explain: based on the above (see the last chart) it is clear all of Aaron's picks were selected based on other sourced pre-draft "projections". On the opposite end, Sean appears to merely use subjective, non-analytical judgement (even if to his detriment); where as Aaron is the foil, as he exclusively appears to use other people's analytics to 'blindly' make his selection (all his picks had the highest remaining win projections). With that said, it seems like Zach's strategy was the ideal balance between Sean's 'self-determined-strategy' and Aaron's purely 'projection-based-philosophy'.

    This also begs the question: if Aaron does win it a third straight year - is that impressive? Likewise, would it be due to his genius or that have of the machines?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good comment there, Zachary Davis Boppas. It's certainly true I use a mostly-subjective system when picking my squads... and that was thrown into warp drive this year. Blanking on the Vikings only exacerbated it. For instance, though, I'll just never pick the 49ers -- even though they were available to me and had a higher wins over/under according to LV compared to the Titans. In short, I guess $50 isn't enough to get my juices flowing and pick strictly with my brain (although I believe I grabbed the hated Patriots in 2K17).

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hehe, very interesting point by Zach. I guess I just disagree with all of the underlying assumptions Zachary has made, specifically the fact that the selection process is done completely blind (even if I recognize how optically, I could see how it could appear that way).

    To your point, however, I do love identifying key data points to collect and then integrating/analyzing, then pairing that intelligence with my own subjective knowledge/analysis. I guess you could call it what I deem to be my "competitive advantage."

    So, yeah, I do enjoy it! And I do think three straight wins would be quite impressive, particularly given the reduced odds of winning this season. At that point, prior to year 1, the odds of a 3-peat would have been 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/4 = ~2.8%. Not bad, ay?

    ReplyDelete