Sunday, September 23, 2018

GUEST POST: NFL Week 3 Picks: Dog Day Afternoon...Again





Hold on. After another strong week -- 10-6 against the spread, after 9-6-1 to open the season -- don't mind me if I'm still walking around town in full Cheat Carroll mode. Let's just get it over with. Here's the gif:



Alright, now that that's out of the way, let's move onto Week 3, shall we?

Sorry to say, but I'm running short on sleep and even shorter on analysis at the time I'm posting this. (I guess that's what happens when you have a few Rainiers in your system.) But it's going to be another dog day afternoon. And some of these obviously don't feel great. The Titans -- with the Roto Pope listed as their third string quarterback -- covering the 10 point spread in Jacksonville? The freaking Bills not getting absolutely smoked in Minnesota? Yea, I'm rolling with it.

The dogs have treated us well in the first two weeks -- not counting the Roto Pope's inexplicable moneyline bet on the dreadful Arizona Cardinals in LA, of course -- so I'm sticking with them once again.

And the Roto Pope has once against blessed us with his picks from on high. He's feeling the under on the New England/Detroit, New Orleans/Atlanta and San Francisco/Kansas City matchups. He also likes the moneyline and spread on the Chargers (+265) in LA, the Titans (+370) at Jags and Bills (+850) at Minnesota.

Let's see if we can keep the good times rolling this week, shall we? And be sure to check back for the next Roto Pope podcast dropping later this week to recap the success -- or destruction -- from Week 3.


Sean B's Picks:


NY Jets (+3) at Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3) 

Tennessee Titans (+10) at Jacksonville Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

*Down to +1.5 for New Orleans at several spots. But we grabbed it earlier in the week. Saints need it.*

Denver Broncos (+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants (+6) at Houston Texans

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3) 

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Washington Redskins

Buffalo Bills (+16.5) at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7) 

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+6) 

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) 

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+7) 

Pittsburgh Steelers (pick 'em) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers








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Saturday, September 22, 2018

Roto Pope Podcast, Episode 14: Special Guest X, NFL W1 Betting Triumphs, W2 "Locks"




Sean Burch (@seanb44) and Aaron Sauceda (@RotoPope) are joined by special guest and friend of the pod, Zach/Boppas, as they engage in various topics for the latest episode of the Roto Pope Podcast, including:
  • Introducing friend of the RP pod and gambling extraordinaire, Zach "Boppas" / "HaralaBoppas" Davis
  • Week 1 Betting Triumphs: Sean and Boppas Go Nuclear
  • Looking Ahead to Week 2: Who are the "Locks"
  • Aaron's Process Tilting, Points to Cardinals as Auto-Bet (@ Rams)
  • "Curb Your Enthusiasm" Countdown! Our top 10 episode countdown, with this episode being #9
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Thursday, September 13, 2018

GUEST POST: NFL Week 2 Picks: That Cheat Carroll Feeling



Winning. It feels good, even if it's only for a fleeting moment. And when it comes to gambling, it's always fleeting, at least for yours truly.

That's why when things actually break right, like last week's 9-6-1 performance against the spread, it feels good to bask in the sunshine of success for one hot minute. It also gives me a good reason to break out the classic gif of Pete "Cheat" Carroll strutting in the rain -- always a crowd favorite -- because that's what it felt like after the Rams took care of business on Monday night, wrapping up a strong opening week.



God, that never gets old.

Anyway, betting $205 brought back $337 in profit -- a juicy 160 percent return for Week 1. After looking at the last five opening NFL weekends, we told you here last week -- and on the Roto Pope podcast, of course -- to back up the truck on the dogs. Between a slate of teasers pushing the Texans, Giants, and 9ers into double-digit territory, and the Jets and Browns (a tie!) covering, that strategy worked out well for the most part. Here's a 32 ounce Miller High Life lifted in honor of Sam Darnold.

The Roto Pope didn't do too shabby, either. He blessed us with some tidbits from Week 1, with the Bucs +410 and +10 and the Jets +230 driving him into the black. Of course, that helped offset his Bills and Raiders bets, but that's the beauty of betting on the heavy dogs.

But alas, we must move onto Week 2. And last week's data-driven approach has been replaced, due to time constraints, with a more..."feel" based approach for Week 2. If it sounds like I'm not thrilled with my process, that's because I'm not. Still, I can't gloat about a hot start if I'm not willing to keep tabs on the rest of the season.

Contrast my half-assed analysis with the Pope's approach, though. His Berkeley-trained brain scans the lines each week, converts them into probabilities and compares them against the average of some data-centric models like FiveThirtyEight to make his picks. (Sounds smart.) His goal is to maximize ROI, so any bets with an implied ROI of 20 percent or more are thrown onto his "short list," before he adds a sprinkle of subjective analysis and ultimately makes his calls.

Here's what he's feeling this week as hit "auto" bets:

-- The Cardinals +645 at the Rams
-- The Cowboys -140 moneyline and -3 spread hosting the Giants
-- The Seahawks +150 moneyline and +3.5 spread in Chicago

And, if you're inclined to follow me back into the depths of gambling hell, my picks are below. Yes, I'm still riding the dogs hard in Week 2.

The Picks: 

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+1) 

Indianapolis Colts (+6) at Washington Redskins

Carolina Panthers (+6) at Atlanta Falcons

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+6) 

Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Feels like I'll regret this one, but hard to picture Bills keeping up with Bolts' weapons

Houston Texans (-2) at Tennessee Titans

Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
From what I've read, the KC defense is supposed to be hot garbage. But Big Ben looked like hot garbage last week. I know he morphs into the best QB ever at home, but I still want the points here

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3) 
Darnold fever

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cleveland Browns (+9) at New Orleans Saints
We sure the Saints are that good, man? I'm riding these fat Browns lines until I remember how bad of a coach Hue Jackson is. Although this should've been plenty of a reminder last week

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-13) 

Detroit Lions (+6) at San Francisco 49ers
Players are already bitching about Matt Patricia's tiring practices and stupid rules. He's also potentially a total scumbag. And the Lions looked like shit on Monday. And they're playing on short rest. Whatever, I'm still taking the points

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) 
Jacksonville could be without Lenny Fournette, but offense isn't really their thing, anyway. The Pats, meanwhile, are down to signing guys off the street to fill in around Tom Brady. I'll take the Jags winning 5-3 here.

Oakland Raiders (+6) at Denver Broncos

New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Chicago Bears









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Saturday, September 8, 2018

Roto Pope Podcast, Episode 13: Go HAM On 'Dogs In Week One



Sean Burch (@seanb44) and Aaron Sauceda (@RotoPope) engage in various topics for the latest episode of the Roto Pope Podcast, including:
  • Life in Boise: Mexican and Italian cuisines
  • The roller coaster that is Tesla and Elon Musk
  • Sean's betting research guest piece on RotoPope.com: Bet dogs in week one
  • Favorite bets ("locks" -- disclaimer: not really locks) of the week
  • Super Bowl favorites
  • Nobody cares about your fantasy football team: "Shady" league observations, luck favoring the bold (?) and historical championship "credit" debate
  • "Curb Your Enthusiasm" Countdown! Our top 10 episode countdown, with this episode being #10
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Thursday, September 6, 2018

[EXCLUSIVE Guest Post] NFL Week 1, Betting the Dogs: The Giants, Sam Darnold, and the Potentially Less-Terrible Cleveland Browns



Image result for tom brady avocado ice cream

NFL Week 1, Betting the Dogs: The Giants, Sam Darnold, and the Potentially Less-Terrible Cleveland Browns

Sean Burch

Are you a moderate gambling addict too? It’s an exciting time, with the NFL regular season kicking off on Thursday night. But before looking at the teams we should blow our money on this weekend, let’s take a quick trip back to Week 1, 2017 for some guidance.   

The Browns, fresh off a dreadful 1-15 season, are heavy 8.5-point home underdogs to the hated Pittsburgh Steelers. Leading 21-10 midway through the fourth quarter, it looks to be another comfortable win for Ben Roethlisberger in a career full of them against Cleveland. Browns fans, picturing another torturous season at hand, were likely debating “would we be better off with a cardboard cutout of Bill Belichick as head coach compared to Hue Jackson?” It’s a valid question. But that’s put on hold, as rookie quarterback DeShon Kizer gets the ball back and drives the Browns downfield. With 3:36 left to play, he connects with Corey Coleman on a slant for a touchdown. Cleveland successfully converts its two-point attempt right after. The Steelers’ lead is shaved to 21-18, and they’ll need to move the chains a few times or risk handing the ball back for a potential late game implosion. The Dawg Pound is suddenly barking. 

You remember how this turned out right? The Browns forced the Steelers to punt, Kizer scrambled towards the end zone as time expired, and Jackson, eyes welling up, was lifted onto his players’ shoulders and carried out of the stadium, signaling a changing of the guard in the AFC North. Eh, not exactly. The Steelers got the ball back, and after first downs from Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, held on for an ugly road victory. But this game was a sign the Browns had finally turned the corner, right? (Ron Howard Narrator Voice: It wasn’t.) In fact, the Browns somehow sucked even more, going winless in 2017. Jackson, in a sadder version of Apollonia purifying herself in the waters of Lake Minnetonka in “Purple Rain,” later took a dip in Lake Erie to wash away the pain. 

What this game reinforced, though, was the old betting axiom: bet on the home underdogs – especially early in the season. In the last five years, home dogs are 16-11 against the spread during Week 1. And it’s not just the home teams, either. Road dogs are 43-33-2 since 2013. Combined, that’s a 57 percent winning percentage. Maybe that doesn’t sound too sexy, but if you hit on 57 percent of your bets in Vegas, you’d own a quarter of The Strip soon enough.

That makes the Browns, hosting the Steelers once again as four point dogs to start the season, an intriguing play – even after last season’s shit show. Factor in new additions like Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry – and Bell potentially missing the game for Pittsburgh – and I’m a bit startled how excited I am to bet on Cleveland.

Of course, if betting the dogs is a wise move early in the season, then betting on the favorites wouldn’t be. And betting on heavy favorites – teams favored by six points or more – is dumber than Jordan Peterson trying to explain his thoughts on God. Big-time favorites cover less than 30 percent of the time, going 4-10-1 ATS in the last five years. That’s uh, not good.

Does that mean I’ll be taking the Jets (+6.5), led by Sam Darnold, the youngest quarterback to start a season since the AFL-NFL merger, in Detroit? Hell yes it does. Same goes for the 49ers (+6.5) in Minnesota, even after losing their starting running back to a torn ACL. Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo should be supported, not slandered, for grabbing dinner with Kiara Mia, as far as I’m concerned. And the Texans (+6.5) against a shorthanded Patriots squad, is also a go for me, even if Tom Brady will be running on avocado ice cream at 60.   

This isn’t as radical as it sounds. The NFL routinely has major turnover. On average, five new teams make the playoffs each season over the last five years. Did anyone expect the flaccid Rams to become the high-scoring machine they were last season? Just because a team was good last season doesn’t mean they’ll be good this season – and that creates a gambling opportunity early in the year.

But don’t get too fancy here. Betting on the dogs to win outright gives a juicier payout, but it also happens much less frequently – about 35 percent of the time, to be exact. They’re dogs for a reason, after all. So unless you’re feeling lucky, avoid the moneyline bets, and stick to the spread. The spread is your friend.

Say it with me: I will bet on the dogs this weekend. It doesn’t matter that Eli Manning looks like a pig roasting over an open flame, waiting to be devoured by the Jacksonville defense. It doesn’t matter that Pete Carroll picked up three guys from the Canadian Football League to round out the Seahawks defense. It doesn’t freaking matter that the Bills couldn’t even slap together a minute of highlights for their starting quarterback. Dogs. Just bet the dogs. This is my new religion – at least until I’m cursing myself out for betting on the Browns on Sunday.

The Picks:

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)  

The one outlier to betting the dogs in Week 1: when two playoff teams match up, the favorite wins 63 percent of the time (7-4 ATS since 2013). Gimme the champs and Big Dick Nick Foles.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4)

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Buffalo Bills (+7) at Baltimore Ravens


Jacksonville Jaguars at NY Giants (+3)

2017 was the season from hell for the Giants. Odell Beckham Jr. is back, Saquon Barkley is there, too, and Ben McAdoo and his terrible haircut have been replaced.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at New Orleans Saints

Houston Texans (+6.5) at New England Patriots

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins just seem terrible, based on five minutes worth of internet research. Breaking my own rule here.

KC Chiefs (+3.5) at No One In Los Angeles Cares About The Chargers (Editor’s Note: HEY!!!)

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Denver Broncos

Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Carolina Panthers

Washington Redskins (Pick ‘em) at Arizona Cardinals

Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers

NY Jets (+6.5) at Detroit Lions

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders

Breaking my rule, again, because the Raiders just threw away Khalil Mack and I’m a complete shill for Sean “Baby Belichick” McVay. (Editor’s Note: This may be among the best opportunities to play Week 1 based on this article’s research, as the public may be overly fading the Raiders based on the Mack news—their defense projected to be well below-average in either case. I’ll take the home dogs, opening the season in the raucous black hole. Gimme Raiders +4.5.)

__________________________________________________________________________


This is an exclusive guest post written by Roto Pope podcast co-host, Sean Burch. Follow him on Twitter, @SeanB44.
Aaron Sauceda Web Developer

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2018 NFL Wins Bet: One Man's Quest For Three



Two seasons, two championships in the books. Akin to my train commute passing cars on the 105, my picks have sped by the competition. Having said that, there’s a giant predictive gap between what’s happened in the past and what’s most likely to happen in the future. Specifically, the NFL is among the kings of volatility and with the introduction of another player, Zach, the odds have drastically changed.

For context, these championships refer to winning our annual NFL “wins bet”—a draft-style bet between four friends, whereby each person selects a real-life NFL team and receives their wins. The objective is to have the most total wins at the end of the season; each person bets $50, winner-take-all.

While I may have won the last two seasons, it wasn’t a linear path there. For one, a fortuitous and admittedly homer-driven trade last season—my Giants for Sean’s Chargers—ended up propelling me to a championship last year despite my honest thinking that the Giants were actually a better bet for more wins.

But what about this season? Following the finalization of our draft yesterday, who projects to win it all? Will Aaron grab his third consecutive NFL win? Let’s take a look, particularly leveraging the thinking of sportsbooks and projection systems.

VIVA LAS VEGAS

Pick
Owner
LV Avg
Sbook
Bovada
Sharp LV
1
Aaron
66.9
67.5
66.0
67.2
4
Zach
66.5
66.5
66.5
66.5
2
Eric
65.6
66.0
65.0
65.7
3
Sean
60.3
60.0
60.0
61.0

Vegas thinks it will be a tight race at the top, with Aaron, Zach and Eric duking it out—while they’re not as bullish on Sean’s suite of teams.

Maybe projection systems feel differently?

PROJECTIONS SMA-JECTIONS

Pick
Owner
Proj Avg
538
TeamRk
ESPN
NF
1
Aaron
67.1
70.0
66.4
67.0
65.1
2
Eric
65.0
65.2
63.9
65.0
65.8
4
Zach
64.7
65.5
63.7
67.0
62.6
3
Sean
59.5
55.5
61.9
58.0
62.5

This is where Aaron really shines—538 is particularly bullish—holding a formidable two-win lead over Eric and Zach, while Sean again lags behind.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Let’s put it all together, combing the thinking of Vegas sportsbooks with that of public projection models:

Pick
Owner
All Avg
LV Avg
Proj Avg
1
Aaron
67.0
66.9
67.1
4
Zach
65.6
66.5
64.7
2
Eric
65.3
65.6
65.0
3
Sean
59.9
60.3
59.5

With the first pick in the draft, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Aaron nets the highest average score across both sources, with the consensus having him as a 1.5-win favorite over both Zach and Eric to achieve the elusive three-peat. Sean’s set of contrarian picks will be interesting to watch all season, as his models were at odds with Vegas and other public projection systems.

For reference, I’ve included the full data set below. 

Best of luck this season, gents.

Pick
Owner
Team
All Avg
LV Avg
Proj Avg
Sbook
Bovada
Sharp LV
538
TeamRk
ESPN
NF
1
Aaron
New England Patriots
11.1
11.3
10.9
11.5
11.0
11.3
11.2
11.2
11.0
10.0
2
Eric
Philadelphia Eagles
10.2
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.0
10.3
11.0
9.8
10.0
10.0
3
Sean
Los Angeles Rams
9.4
10.0
8.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
8.2
9.5
9.0
8.8
4
Zach
Pittsburgh Steelers
10.1
10.5
9.8
10.5
10.5
10.4
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.4
5
Zach
Green Bay Packers
9.3
9.9
8.7
10.0
10.0
9.8
7.1
9.0
10.0
8.5
6
Sean
Los Angeles Chargers
9.4
9.5
9.2
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.5
9.0
9.4
7
Eric
Minnesota Vikings
9.8
10.1
9.6
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.0
9.5
8
Aaron
New Orleans Saints
9.4
9.6
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.2
9.5
9.0
9.4
9
Aaron
Atlanta Falcons
9.1
9.3
9.0
9.5
9.0
9.3
9.9
9.0
9.0
8.1
10
Eric
Jacksonville Jaguars
9.0
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.2
8.8
8.8
9.0
9.3
11
Sean
Houston Texans
8.2
8.6
7.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
6.3
8.2
8.0
8.5
12
Zach
Carolina Panthers
8.7
8.8
8.6
8.5
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
9.0
8.4
13
Zach
Kansas City Chiefs
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
9.5
7.9
9.0
7.7
14
Sean
Tennessee Titans
7.9
8.0
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
7.8
8.0
7.4
15
Eric
San Francisco 49ers
8.1
8.5
7.8
8.5
8.5
8.4
7.3
7.0
9.0
7.9
16
Aaron
Dallas Cowboys
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.8
8.2
9.0
7.7
17
Aaron
Baltimore Ravens
8.3
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.0
8.2
8.7
8.0
8.0
8.4
18
Eric
Oakland Raiders
7.8
8.0
7.6
8.0
8.0
8.1
7.3
7.8
8.0
7.3
19
Sean
New York Giants
6.8
7.1
6.4
7.0
7.0
7.3
5.8
7.0
6.0
6.9
20
Zach
Seattle Seahawks
8.0
7.8
8.2
7.5
8.0
7.8
8.9
7.8
8.0
8.2
21
Zach
Detroit Lions
7.7
7.6
7.8
7.5
7.5
7.7
8.2
7.1
8.0
7.7
22
Sean
New York Jets
6.3
5.9
6.7
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.9
6.2
6.0
7.7
23
Eric
Chicago Bears
6.8
6.6
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.8
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.6
24
Aaron
Denver Broncos
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.4
7.0
7.6
7.0
7.3
25
Aaron
Washington Redskins
7.1
7.0
7.3
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.7
26
Eric
Cincinnati Bengals
7.0
6.6
7.4
6.5
6.5
6.7
7.5
7.6
7.0
7.3
27
Sean
Cleveland Browns
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.7
3.8
6.5
6.0
6.4
28
Zach
Miami Dolphins
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.7
7.0
6.8
6.0
6.5
29
Zach
Indianapolis Colts
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
6.5
6.8
6.3
7.0
7.0
6.2
30
Sean
Arizona Cardinals
6.3
5.6
7.0
5.5
5.5
5.9
7.4
7.2
6.0
7.4
31
Eric
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.8
6.4
6.0
6.9
32
Aaron
Buffalo Bills
6.4
6.0
6.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
8.0
5.8
7.0
6.5


Aaron Sauceda Web Developer

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