tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5926843531021984712.post5044876384681306374..comments2024-03-27T23:12:31.559-07:00Comments on Roto Pope: 2018 NFL Wins Bet: One Man's Quest For ThreeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5926843531021984712.post-23640054502108469052018-09-06T14:03:42.479-07:002018-09-06T14:03:42.479-07:00Hehe, very interesting point by Zach. I guess I ju...Hehe, very interesting point by Zach. I guess I just disagree with all of the underlying assumptions Zachary has made, specifically the fact that the selection process is done completely blind (even if I recognize how optically, I could see how it could appear that way).<br /><br />To your point, however, I do love identifying key data points to collect and then integrating/analyzing, then pairing that intelligence with my own subjective knowledge/analysis. I guess you could call it what I deem to be my "competitive advantage." <br /><br />So, yeah, I do enjoy it! And I do think three straight wins would be quite impressive, particularly given the reduced odds of winning this season. At that point, prior to year 1, the odds of a 3-peat would have been 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/4 = ~2.8%. Not bad, ay?Aaron Saucedahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11366934182300145419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5926843531021984712.post-38247164230821405172018-09-06T12:26:02.919-07:002018-09-06T12:26:02.919-07:00Good comment there, Zachary Davis Boppas. It's...Good comment there, Zachary Davis Boppas. It's certainly true I use a mostly-subjective system when picking my squads... and that was thrown into warp drive this year. Blanking on the Vikings only exacerbated it. For instance, though, I'll just never pick the 49ers -- even though they were available to me and had a higher wins over/under according to LV compared to the Titans. In short, I guess $50 isn't enough to get my juices flowing and pick strictly with my brain (although I believe I grabbed the hated Patriots in 2K17). Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10725240051996959299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5926843531021984712.post-64324006885590130102018-09-06T10:39:55.951-07:002018-09-06T10:39:55.951-07:00I just want to pose one question: how are these dr...I just want to pose one question: how are these drafts fun for Aaron? <br /><br />Let me explain: based on the above (see the last chart) it is clear all of Aaron's picks were selected based on other sourced pre-draft "projections". On the opposite end, Sean appears to merely use subjective, non-analytical judgement (even if to his detriment); where as Aaron is the foil, as he exclusively appears to use other people's analytics to 'blindly' make his selection (all his picks had the highest remaining win projections). With that said, it seems like Zach's strategy was the ideal balance between Sean's 'self-determined-strategy' and Aaron's purely 'projection-based-philosophy'. <br /><br />This also begs the question: if Aaron does win it a third straight year - is that impressive? Likewise, would it be due to his genius or that have of the machines?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00833419489602856331noreply@blogger.com