As Sean and I were discussing in our
recent
episode 6 of the Roto Pope podcast, much of my written content to date has
been pitching-focused. Introspectively, that makes sense for me—for years, my
strength has been cobbling together quality pitching staffs and identifying good
pitchers, often times before the rest of the market. Having said that, on the
other side of the coin, my teams have been consistently lacking on offense! This
rings true so far this season, as well, where I rank 6
th in pitching
and 11
th in hitting in both of my primary leagues. I’m not certain
why the disparity, even if I do find pitching endlessly fascinating, but it’s
clearly an area for me focus … which brings us to today.
While the top hitters are not hard to spot—looking at you,
Mike Trout—there are others that may be performing well under the surface but
have yet to achieve the commensurate outcomes. Those are the hitters we’re
looking for today. The key callout there is “performing well under the
surface,” which means many of their peripheral stats that can serve as leading
indicators of performance look good. That removes players such Paul Goldschmidt
and Ian Desmond—they could be “buy
low” recommendations, but that would be purely based on blind faith. Nothing in
their underlying numbers suggest that they have been unlucky to this point.
That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider acquiring one of them or that they won’t
turn it around—it just means they won’t be included in this piece.
What will be
included then, you ask? Similar to much of the work we’ve done here to date,
let’s start with the basics: plate discipline and quality of contact. That
means we’ll be focusing on things such as strikeouts, walks, exit velocities,
and launch angles. Similarly, we’ll take a peak at Andrew Perpetua’s expected
stats “xStats” to assess how a player should
be performing based on their exit velocities and launch angles. It stands
to reason that we want players who possess a strong approach at the plate and that
tear the cover off the ball when they put it in play, right?
Where to start? There has been a lot of discussion around
the predictiveness of metrics, particularly new “expected” Statcast metrics,
which Jonathan Judge has shown aren’t
significantly
more meaningful and predictive than previous metrics like FIP—at least for
pitchers. Even so, Nate Freiman jumped into the action and showed that
“expected”
wOBA (xwOBA) is more predictive of future in-season wOBA than current wOBA
itself. The point is, that provides us a place to start in this analysis—that is,
who are the most “unlucky” to date based on their xwOBA and wOBA differences.
If Freiman’s analysis holds some truth, then looking at xwOBA will give us a
better indicator of things to come than current wOBA.
With that, let’s take a look at five interesting hitters
that might be worth buying and may gettable in your leagues (sorted by
difference in xwOBA and wOBA):
MATT CARPENTER, 1B/2B/3B
wOBA: 0.321, xwOBA:
0.396 | Diff: 75 Points
Current 5x5 Rank: 454
After years of being a 35-40% above league average hitter,
Matt Carpenter has been on a bit of decline since last season. There was talk
of a nagging shoulder injury that
he
decided not to have surgery on. There was also a career low batting average
of .241 last season, in which Carpenter thought he sold out for power too much,
leading to more strikeouts and flyballs and fewer line drives. He also entered
this season at 32,
an
age range in the midst of steeper aging curves.
But dammit does he hit the ball hard! Per
Andrew Perpetua’s batted ball
classifications, he ranks 6
th best in the types of batted balls
that do the
most damage and 6
th
best in hitting the fewest batted balls that do the
least damage. He ranks top 20 in hard hit percentage, barrels per
batted ball event and barrel per plate appearance, and top 50 in percentage of balls
hit greater than 95 MPH. Yet, his triple slash has been an unsightly
.200/.318/.367 and, perhaps more concerning, his strikeout rate has jumped to
26%! His contact % and swinging strike rates have both jumped in the wrong
direction too—not good. In particular, the contact % has gone from well above
average to well below average.
Still, there are signs for optimism. His swinging strike rate
still remains among the top third in the game. His xStats suggest a much juicier
triple slash of .269/.380/.551. He’s among the top 30 in line drives and
flyballs. He’s still walking nearly 15% of the time. His wRC+ in May is 127, so
maybe he’s already turning it around?
The nagging shoulder injury leaves a scary taste in my
mouth. Maybe that’s what makes him a true “buy low,” someone potentially
gettable if his owner sees his May as a mere hot streak and an opportune selling
window. Those same owners might also be looking at his rest-of-season (ROS) projections
that peg him as outside of the top 300 overall. I think they’re overweighting last
season and his .250 ROS projected batting average is too low—with his more line
drive heavy approach this season, his true talent batting average is probably
closer to his previous .270. It’s a profile worth betting on for cheap, especially
due to the position flexibility he provides across the infield.
CARLOS SANTANA, 1B
wOBA: 0.317, xwOBA:
0.383 | Diff: 66 Points
Current 5x5 Rank: 112
Some analysts in the industry subscribe to the idea that
big
money free agent signings matter, that their integration into a new
situation has an impact on performance. I
might
buy that to a small degree—these are humans we’re discussing, after all. Having
said that, Santana is in a nice situation. The Phillies look like one of the
next up-and-coming teams and are currently 13
th in team wOBA.
Santana opened the season in the number two batting slot and recently has been alternating
between fourth and fifth. He hasn’t even been
bad—no one in their right mind would describe a player with a 110
wRC+ as “bad.”
And yet, it feels like something is missing. He’s currently
hitting .205. Similar to Carpenter, he’s in his age-32 season. Other than that,
everything else looks good! His strikeouts are down, his walks are up.
Underlying plate discipline metrics look fine—both his contact and swinging
strike rates are among the top 30. His current xStats triple slash is
.259/.369/.530. He currently has 8 HR but xStats thinks he should have 10. His
17.1-degree
launch
angle is right in the sweet spot. He’s hitting the ball with authority,
ranking in the top 30 among max exit velocity and barrels.
The biggest change in his profile are his flyballs—he’s
pushed them up from 39% to 49% this season! That’s good for power, although it
has come at the expense of line drives thus far—a development likely to have a
drag on his batting average. He’s hitting those flyballs with authority though,
ranking in the top 50 for exit velocity on flyballs and line drives. ROS
projections have him as a top 150 overall player and a top-12 first baseman. Given
his current 112 rank, despite the disparity between his current and expected
performance, I think his upside his higher than top 150. In fact, given that
112 rank, I’m not sure he even is a buy low! Like Carpenter, he started slow in
April (64 wRC+) but has turned up the heat in May (176 wRC+). But if his owner
is getting frustrated with the batting average drag, now might be the time to
swoop in before he really heats up.
YADIER MOLINA, C
wOBA: 0.319, xwOBA:
0.383 | Diff: 64 Points
Current 5x5 Rank: 265
Even so, Molina has reportedly
resumed
light workouts. I am not suggesting that you drop everything you’re doing to
acquire him. But don’t forget about him—perhaps remember his name as a
potential throw-in during your negotiations. Owners might not be optimistic
about his timetable for return and performance once active. Despite his
advanced age of 35, he’s been a top 100 player the last two season. Catcher is a
wasteland.
And he was hitting the ball well in his 120 plate
appearances before going down. His actual triple slash was respectable as-is,
but his expected triple slash looks even tastier: .331/.347/.556. He was top 30
in batted balls that do the most damage and top 50 in barrels per plate
appearance. His strikeout rate is up slightly, but it’s still a tidy 14%. And
yet his contact is up and swinging strike rate down. Try to scoop him up
cheaply if you can, I think he’s still got it.
RYAN ZIMMERMAN, 1B
wOBA: 0.300, xwOBA: 0.355
| Diff: 55 Points
Current 5x5 Rank: 436
Zimmerman was placed on the DL on May 12th with a
strained oblique—typically a four-week injury. Being conservative, he should
return to a murky playing time situation in mid-to-late June. I say “murky”
because, prior to injury, Zimmerman had been playing at 1B but scuffled to a
.217/.280/.409 triple slash. Meanwhile, Fat err Matt Adams had taken fire and
suddenly looked like the best player in the game, banging out 12 dingers while hitting
.270/.368/.626 and taking playing time away from Zimmerman.
Needless to say, between Zimmerman’s struggles and health
questions, and with Adams’ hot hitting and 19-year-old phenom Juan Soto now in
Washington, it’s fair to question if Zimmerman will be an everyday player when
he returns. The situation has created a potential buying opportunity.
Despite his production struggles, Zimmerman was hitting the
shit out of the ball, ranking 5th in average exit velocity, 8th
in line drive and flyball exit velocity, and 6th in percentage of
hits at least 95 MPH. Just for good measure, he also ranked top 40 in barrels
and batted balls that do the most damage. His plate discipline is roughly
similar to last season’s—his strikeouts and walks are actually slightly better
this season—when he hit .303/.358/.573 and finished as a top-40 player in standard
5x5.
Add all of this up and xStats actually thinks Zimmerman has
been better than his current line shows, with his xStats triple slash standing
at .282/.340/.479. There are plenty of reasons not to like Zimmerman. At his
current 8-degree launch angle and 44% groundball rate, he could probably
benefit from hitting more flyballs. Last season was his first fantasy relevant
season since 2013. He’s 33, potentially injury prone, and currently, well,
injured. Add the playing time concerns and “meh” ROS projections (roughly 250th
overall) and you’re likely looking at a low price. Hell, he probably didn’t
cost owners much in the first place (preseason ADP: 155)! Still, I think he’s a
potentially valuable piece well worth an inquiry or adding as a throw-in.
JOEY VOTTO, 1B
wOBA: 0.372, xwOBA: 0.415
| Diff: 43 Points
Current 5x5 Rank: 120
I won’t spend much time on Votto other than to say, if an
owner in your league sees his age of 34 and current uncharacteristic production
(.279/.401/.425) and wants to get out before the house of cards come falling
down, then sign me up. His walks are down and strikeouts are up, but still sit
at elite levels. He also remains in the top 25 in both contact and swinging
strikeout rate. He’s one of the brightest minds in the game and still one of
the most talented hitters, recently dissecting how he’s always adjusting and
staying ahead of the game with The Athletic’s Eno Sarris (
$).
Don’t get me wrong, his time will come, and I hope to get out too early rather
than too late. I just don’t think that time is now, nor does xStats, who gives
Votto an xStats triple slash of .321/.437/.515. ROS projections still have him
as a top-5 option at 1B, and top 40 overall player—perhaps a tad disappointing
considering draft day cost, but certainly not a bust. Buy at any material
discount.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
We must remember, of course, that many of the metrics above
help us better understand past
performance. In the case of expected stats, they’re not predictive per se, just
slightly more predictive than current
performance. Use them to your advantage and work the trade talks in your
league; don’t stop until you’ve found appropriate discounts and hopefully rest-of-season
performance converges with their current expected performance.
And while comparing xwOBA
to actual wOBA is a good place to start, it’s certainly not comprehensive and will
miss buying interesting opportunities—any others that especially stand out to
you?
NOTES ON SOURCES
- Projections, xStats, and rankings are as of 5/22/18
- All other stats are as of 5/25/18
- Sources: FanGraphs, xStats.org, Baseball Savant
- Projections are averages of Steamer, ZiPS, THE BAT (downloaded from FanGraphs)
