It Moved! Early Pitching Velocity Surgers

Pitching in baseball is a complex undertaking – a subject comprised of part art, part science. There are many interconnected variables – pitching mix, velocity, sequencing, deception, movement, control, command, game plan, framing, umpiring – many of which are difficult to quantify, making it nearly impossible to fully understand pitching performance and predict its impact on the future.

But there are still some things we think we know! For instance, last week we discussed that each tick of velocity is worth roughly 0.25 in ERA for starters and 0.40-0.45 in ERA for relievers. In that same piece, we highlighted the early decliners because fastball velocity becomes meaningful in as quickly as 10 fastballs. This time we’ll be looking at early velocity surgers—those that have seen their velocity increase since last season—keeping in mind that cold weather and early season ramp-up tend to suppress velocity. Many pitchers will likely gain roughly one tick as the season goes on, peaking in August. For our purposes, this means that even “neutral” early season velocity could indicate that pitcher might be up a tick on the season. Let’s take a look. (Data as of 4/29/18)

Biggest Surgers
Top 20 Surgers – Starting Pitchers

#	Name	IP	Fastballs	FBv_18	FBv_17	Diff
1	Daniel Gossett	7.1	83	92.8	91.5	1.3
2	Kyle Hendricks	29	309	86.8	85.8	1.0
3	Charlie Morton	29	268	96	95	1.0
4	Blake Snell	35.2	338	95.1	94.3	0.8
5	Mike Foltynewicz	32	336	96.1	95.3	0.8
6	Junior Guerra	22	247	92.5	91.9	0.6
7	Andrew Triggs	23	202	89.5	88.9	0.6
8	Kenta Maeda	20.1	161	92	91.5	0.5
9	Brent Suter	30.1	323	86.2	85.8	0.4
10	Dallas Keuchel	36	337	89.1	88.7	0.4
11	Jake Arrieta	24.2	250	92.4	92.1	0.3
12	Lance Lynn	18.2	309	92.1	91.8	0.3
13	Vince Velasquez	26	286	94.2	93.9	0.3
14	J.A. Happ	29	356	92	91.8	0.2
15	Kendall Graveman	28.1	318	93.6	93.4	0.2
16	Trevor Cahill	12	83	91.1	90.9	0.2
17	Derek Holland	25	253	91.2	91.1	0.1
18	Zach Davies	28.1	241	89.8	89.7	0.1
19	Luke Weaver	26	267	93.3	93.2	0.1
20	Kyle Gibson	27	274	92.1	92	0.1

Kyle Hendricks is moving from Weavering levels to, well, slightly less Weavering levels. Hendricks has always relied on command more than velocity, but at least his velo isn’t continuing to trend in the wrong direction. Even so, I’m not totally buying his 3.10 ERA. His FIP and SIERA currently sit at 4.70 and 3.88, respectively, and he’s not inducing as many swings on pitches outside of the zone while allowing more contact on pitches inside the zone. Additionally, he’s developed a bit of a HR problem so far (1.55 HR/9), although to be fair, xStats indicates he should be closer to 1.1 xHR/9. Putting it all together, Hendricks has a profile that tends to consistently beat his ERA indicators, so there’s precedent here. Still, it’s not a profile I’m actively buying beyond his Steamer ROS projections of 3.90 ERA.    

Somehow Charlie Morton has added another velocity increase to his belt, increasing from 93 in earlier in his career to 96 in the early going this season! He appears to be the real deal, aided in our rotisserie games by increased win chances as a result of playing for one of the best teams in baseball. His strikeout rate is up to 29% and his groundball rate is up to 59%. His 3.91 FIP and 3.19 SIERA aren’t buying the 1.86 ERA – not that anyone should be – but I think they might be discounting potentially bad HR luck thus far, as he’s seen 22.2% of flyballs leave the yard resulting in a 1.24 HR/9, while xStats suggests that should be much lower (0.4 xHR/9). I’m buying Morton’s strikeout and groundball gains, but it should be noted that his innings career-high is 171 IP back in 2011 with the Pirates (his innings from 2012-2017 have been 50, 116, 157, 129, 146). His price has probably skyrocketed since draft day, but he could be worth an inquiry in case his owner sees this as a sell high opportunity. I’d be buying.

Blake Snell has parlayed his increased velocity into a higher swinging strike rate (from 10.8% to 13.8%) and strikeout rate nearing 30%, doubling his K-BB% in the process from 11% last season to 22% this season. His 2.90 FIP and 3.29 SIERA are mostly buying his early 2.52 ERA. Expect a little HR regression from his current 0.76 HR/9 (xStats suggests it should be 0.9 xHR/9), but with the improved strikeout and walk rates and increased velo, I’m buying and will take the under on his ROS projections (3.50-3.70 ERA).

Mike Foltynewicz has always been a bit of a tease, flashing plus velocity but not delivering commensurate results. This year has been a bit different with Folty the owner of a shiny 2.53 ERA so far. That’s good! I can’t say I’m totally buying him – and certainly not the 2.53 ERA – but there are a few things going well. He’s always had plus velocity, but the extra tick is nice and his strikeout rate is up from 20.7% to 29.3%. He’s relied less on the sinker and more on the changeup this year, giving batters different looks and a more complete arsenal. He’s also inducing less contact both inside and outside of the zone. HOWEVAH (Stephen A. Smith voice), he’s also inducing fewer swings both inside and outside the zone, which may be driving his walk rate up from 8.5% to 11.3%. Even so, Folty’s owners are playing with house money right now as he didn’t cost much on draft day, and while ROS projections aren’t crazy about him (4.30-4.80 ERA, 1.30-1.40 WHIP), I’m taking the under on those amid his 18% K-BB%, 3.87 FIP, 3.70 SIERA, and 0.7 xHR/9 (against an actual 1.13 HR/9).

Junior Guerra flashed brief relevance back in 2016 when he ran a 2.81 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 4.42 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 11.6% K-BB%. After an injury-riddled 2017, his velocity is back up closer to the 94 we saw in 2016, and his K-BB% is up to 15%. He’s pounding the zone right now and inducing fewer swinging strikes than last season so I’m hesitant to fully buy the 23% strikeout rate, but he could be a useful pitcher – probably closer to his 4.05 SIERA than his 2.77 FIP, but better than his ROS projections (4.60-5.00 ERA, 1.40-1.50 WHIP).

Andrew Triggs has likely been better than his 4.70 ERA suggests, holding a 14% K-BB%, 3.75 FIP, and 3.97 SIERA. His GB% is also up to 53% this season and combined with his spacious home park, he profiles as a useful back-of-the-rotation fantasy arm.

Kenta Maeda will always be a casualty of creative rotation-ing, as he’s currently on pace for roughly 120-130 innings – similar to the 134 innings he threw last season. In the innings he has pitched this season, though, he’s been (mostly) straight fire. He currently holds a 33.7% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, resulting in a pristine 27.2% K-BB%, good for 7^th among pitchers with at least 20 innings. One thing to note is that, while homers haven’t been a problem, his WHIP is a ghastly 1.48, although its likely driven by a crazy .434 BABIP. His 1.80 FIP and 2.64 SIERA are clearly regressing that closer to a league average of roughly .300, which makes sense, but I find it curious that his exit velocity allowed has jumped from 85.4 to 90.2 MPH this season. I’d rather bet on his elite strikeouts and walks thus far, but his lower innings ceiling and higher exit velo allowed is giving me a bit of pause, and certainly worth watching. Overall, this is a profile to like – ROS projections suggest a 3.40-3.70 ERA and 1.16-1.20 WHIP – but pump the brakes due to lack of volume.

The rest of these surgers have seen velocity increase by only 0.4 or less. Given that velocity increases as the season goes on, peaking in August, it’s a good sign to see them up early in the season, all but guaranteeing they won’t see a season-over-season velocity drop assuming they avoid injury. Each is worth looking into given the could, in theory, be up at least one tick on the year. If I had to choose one name to call out, I’m particularly interested in Trevor Cahill, who looked like a very good pitcher early last season with the Padres before an oblique injury put him on the DL and he was traded to the Royals. He was never the same after, but now calls Oakland home. Given his low cost, I’ll buy his early 30.4% strikeout rate (just 12 innings) and see where he takes me. 

Biggest Surgers
Top 20 Surgers – Relief Pitchers

#	Name	IP	Fastballs	FBv_18	FBv_17	Diff
1	Amir Garrett	14.2	123	94.1	91.7	2.4
2	Seth Lugo	14.1	118	93	91.1	1.9
3	Collin McHugh	10.2	91	91.9	90.2	1.7
4	Tyler Glasnow	15.1	210	95.7	94.6	1.1
5	Roberto Osuna	11.1	113	95.4	94.6	0.8
6	Robert Gsellman	14	122	93.5	92.7	0.8
7	Miguel Castro	16.1	139	96.2	95.6	0.6
8	Oliver Drake	12.2	122	92.5	91.9	0.6
9	Brad Peacock	12.2	113	92.6	92.1	0.5
10	Tony Barnette	2.2	27	93.4	92.9	0.5
11	Jordan Lyles	16.1	108	94.3	93.8	0.5
12	Bud Norris	13.1	114	94.5	94.1	0.4
13	Austin Pruitt	14.2	97	92	91.6	0.4
14	John Brebbia	5	43	94.6	94.2	0.4
15	Matt Andriese	13.1	106	92.4	92.1	0.3
16	Matt Bowman	11.1	142	91.3	91	0.3
17	Ryan Tepera	12.2	120	95.2	95	0.2
18	Jesse Chavez	15.2	106	92.2	92	0.2
19	Ryan Madson	13	131	95.4	95.2	0.2
20	Aaron Loup	9.1	95	92.1	91.9	0.2

Five of the first six on the list are to be expected – all (except Osuna) have moved from the rotation to the bullpen so far this season. Speaking of, Roberto Osuna is an interesting name on the list, as the added velocity could take him from being a second-tier to elite closer, particularly with Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel appearing mortal (and showing on last week’s decliner’s article).

Bud Norris has been amazing this season, like Cahill above, re-capturing some of his early season magic from last season. While I don’t believe he’ll retain the closing job – the Cardinals invested $14M in Greg Holland to close – he might be an elite guy in saves plus holds leagues, with a 38.5% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. If Holland continues to falter, Norris could accumulate saves longer than expected.

WRAPPING UP

Going back to our introductory piece on which stats to look at early in the season, we’ve concluded our looks at pitcher fastball velocity, which become meaningful very quickly. In the pieces to come, we’ll look at other interesting trends that have become meaningful early in the season, such as pitcher’s arsenals and hitter’s exit velocities. Stay tuned!